SOUTHAMPTON, BERMUDA - NOVEMBER 09: Alex Noren of Sweden hits a tee shot on the ninth hole during the first round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course on November 09, 2023 in Southampton, Bermuda. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Written by Ben Everill @BEverillGolfbet
A sublime 10-under 61 to tie the course record has given veteran Alex Noren a great start at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship as he looks to claim a long overdue first PGA TOUR victory.
As I highlighted pre-tournament, Noren is one of many great putters in the field at Port Royal Golf Club that can’t be ignored, in fact he ranked 23rd in Strokes Gained: Putting coming into the week, fifth-best of those playing.
My top 10 prediction from the 10-time DP World Tour winner may end up being a tad conservative if he continues to need just 24 putts per round as he did Thursday.
Alex Noren goes low to take early lead at Butterfield Bermuda
The new +375 favorite deserves his billing, but don’t forget we’ve only seen one wire-to-wire winner this season in Lee Hodges at the 3M Open.
While I’m not prepared to fade Noren the player, I would consider fading his odds as they stand. If you haven’t jumped on before now, I wouldn’t be jumping on just yet. Noren has to wait for the afternoon wave on Friday and the winds will change.
He could easily start a long way behind the lead and hitting nine of 14 fairways on day one isn’t exactly the stat you want to see at this early stage. Perhaps wait for another round if you’re not already on the Swede. You might get slightly better value if he plays only half decent and if he continues surging ahead, you haven’t missed out on massive odds.
As it stands, Noren leads by two over Vince Whaley, Robert Garrigus, Dylan Wu and D.J. Trahan. Of those, only Wu stands out to me as a solid contender at this point.
Sitting three back are Davis Riley, Stewart Cink, Ryan Brehm, Ryan Gerard, Satoshi Kodaira, Austin Smotherman, Matti Schmid and D.A. Points, but it is a couple of names further down the board I’m eyeballing.
Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.
+375: Alex Noren -10, 1st
+1200: Adam Scott -6, T14
+1200: Dylan Wu -8, T2
+1400: Brendon Todd -6, T14
+1400: Davis Riley -7, T6
+1400: Vince Whalley -8, T2
+1600: Akshay Bhatia -6, T14
+1800: Taylor Pendrith -6, T14
DRAWS
Brendon Todd (+1400, 4 off the lead)
Todd, the champion in late 2019, came into the week ranked 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season – the second best of those in the field. For most of Thursday afternoon he looked set to move in close behind Noren, only to uncharacteristically miss a few putts down the stretch. He needed 28 putts in the first round but I have a feeling he will tidy that up ahead of the rest of the tournament. Add to this the fact he’s coming off a tidy sixth-place finish in Mexico, the second top 10 in his last four starts, and I’m not prepared to rule out a Friday morning surge for the man I picked as your winner pre-tournament.
Adam Scott (+1200, 4 off the lead)
The second of my pre-tournament outright picks was my Aussie mate Scotty and late Thursday’s play made me confident he’s trending up. Sitting at a pretty ho-hum 2 under through 13 holes Scott was looking a little rusty. But he picked up four shots coming in, including a ridiculously seemingly effortless tap-in eagle on the par-5 17th, to post a 6-under 65. His round had seven birdies and the eagle but was let down by three bogeys. But here’s the rub about those bogeys – and you can use this to decide if you will also draw – or fade – the 2013 Masters champion. They came on the three long par 3s of 213, 235 and 235. If Scott can dial in his long irons overnight, he can really pick up some shots. Given he ranks poorly this season on approach from this distance, and in par 3 scoring, I’m not expecting miracles. I am hoping for improvement though – pars over bogeys. Bottom line, he cannot afford the errors going forward.
Dylan Wu (+1200, 2 off the lead)
One stat and one stat alone has me thinking we shouldn’t sleep on Wu. He ranks 39th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and yet he moved into second place despite needing 28 putts on Thursday. If he maintains his scoring and brings his usual best putting practices to the course over the final three rounds, he becomes a player to watch.
FADES
Davis Riley (+1400, 3 off the lead)
I’ve basically gone all in on putters this week (except for Taylor Pendrith, keep an eye on him) so when it comes to fading something other than Noren’s current odds, I’m going to plump for Riley. He ranks 121st on TOUR in SG: Putting which makes me worry if he can make enough birdies over the next three days to keep pace. He also ranks 174th in SG: Around the Green. While he managed to scramble three of four times Thursday, can he continue to keep it together if he adds more pressure to himself?
