Game 7s make for great theater, but not only because of the stakes and suspense. They are the final act of a ballet between two teams who have already revealed their choreography. There will be variations on the themes from earlier, but those themes have been seen and interpreted throughout six games. It’s the sheer quality of the performance that counts most.
I’ve been at all six games of this peculiar NBA playoff series between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. Here are five themes I think might be important Sunday (6 p.m. MT) at Ball Arena. Game 7 will either end with a roaring ovation for the Nuggets and an encore in the Western Conference Finals — or it’ll be curtains.
1. Jamal Murray isn’t Denver’s only erratic scorer
I’ve already devoted a separate story to the importance of Murray’s offense in deciding Game 7, so let’s treat that as a given and use this space to focus on Denver’s third option.
Michael Porter Jr. was lethal in the first round, shooting 48.8% from three. He entered this matchup expecting Anthony Edwards to guard him and Jaden McDaniels to start on Murray. Instead, the Timberwolves have committed the lengthier McDaniels to MPJ for a surprising amount of time.
“He’s so tall that most people can’t block him, so for me, I’m just gonna not let him get the ball,” McDaniels said between the first two games, after that hand was shown. “Try to, at least.”
Consider it a success. Porter’s field goal attempts per game are down from 15.2 in the first round to 9.7 in the second round. His points per touch are down dramatically from 0.481 to 0.255. According to the NBA’s tracking data, Porter has attempted 10 shots in 29:55 with McDaniels matched up on him, as opposed to 16 in 22:08 with Edwards as his matchup. He’s not getting opportunities to attack close-outs as much (dribbles per touch are also down from 1.11 to 0.81). And when he does find clean 3-point looks, they’re just not falling at the same rate (35.3%).
How creative can Denver get with off-ball action to get Porter back in a rhythm with the season on the line?
2. Can Nuggets afford to swarm Anthony Edwards?
This has been a series defined by living with the results of tactical gambles.
The Timberwolves’ defensive coverage against Nikola Jokic inherently involves leaving Aaron Gordon open if he spaces to the corners. They were resigned to the consequences, if exasperated by them, when Gordon started making 3s.
The same goes for the domino effect of any double-teaming Denver cares to enforce against Edwards. After four games of declaring the Nuggets were content to let Edwards “get his” if it meant limiting the role players, coach Michael Malone suddenly flipped philosophies in Game 5 after a 44-point Ant showing. The Nuggets threw bodies at Edwards.
They were willing to guide the ball into Rudy Gobert’s hands on the short roll. They were passive to close out on McDaniels around the perimeter. Edwards had his worst game of the series. Then point guard Mike Conley returned in Game 6, and Minnesota’s offense rediscovered a state of calm. Edwards navigated the traffic much better.
“They knew it was coming,” Malone said, “and they did a really good job moving the ball.”
It helped that McDaniels went Gordon Mode. He shot 80% and established confidence that Denver has to hope won’t carry over to Game 7. If it does, Edwards coverage will get tricky.
Which defensive doctrine will Malone commit to, and at what cost?
3. How will Timberwolves guard Nikola Jokic?
One game after Denver’s adjustment to neutralize Ant Man, Chris Finch responded by applying the same philosophy to the Joker.
Game 5 was arguably the greatest of Jokic’s playoff career. It seemed he had solved the Karl-Anthony Towns primary matchup with Gobert roaming the baseline. So in lieu of — nay, in addition to — the usual game plan, Minnesota frequently sent a double-team from the perimeter in Game 6 whenever Jokic had an opportunity to post up.
The adjustment was reminiscent of the Lakers’ first-round scheme, with rotations to the nearest shooter often springing into action as the entry pass went to Jokic. The Nuggets’ subsequent execution was sloppy, and when it wasn’t, they shot 19.4% from 3-point range.
“There are gonna be things we can do differently from a game plan standpoint,” Malone said, “but to me, the much bigger issue is we have to do a lot better job of being locked in.”
With the Game 5 masterpiece still in the not-so-distant past, will Minnesota replicate its Game 6 wrinkle? Or stick to the original plan, which once upon a time helped build a 2-0 series lead? And what actions can the Nuggets dial up to isolate Jokic against Gobert?
4. Cross-matching on Karl-Anthony Towns, Naz Reid
Scoring four points fewer than his regular-season average will cause pundits to say otherwise, but KAT has had a largely positive impact on this series for Minnesota. He’s shooting 50% from the floor and 44% from three, and he’s averaging 9.6 rebounds the last five games.
When Denver has moved Gordon onto Edwards, Towns has often found himself guarded by a smaller defender. The Nuggets’ cross-matching efforts can have consequences against Minnesota’s size, such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Porter stuck in the paint against KAT. Or Murray or Justin Holiday trapped in a similar situation against Naz Reid during the second-unit minutes. Reid attempted five shots inside the arc against Murray in Game 6.
Denver has to monitor the Timberwolves’ efforts to exploit those potential mismatches. In Towns’ case, it might help for Jokic to tag him with a couple of early fouls at the other end.
5. Transition and second-chance scoring
These are broad ideas that apply to every game, but they’re especially important in a must-win situation against a half-court defense this good.
In the first half of Game 6, the Timberwolves converted 11 offensive rebounds into 15 second-chance points. The Nuggets haven’t gotten a boost like that all series. In the regular season, they attempted 80 or fewer shots in only three of 82 games. In the second round, they’ve been held to 80 or fewer shots in four of the six games. A team that ranked 13th in offensive rebounding this season was limited to single-digit offensive boards in all four of those games. Jokic is the king of recovering his own misses for easier shots, but even those points have been shut off for extended stretches.
The Nuggets’ offense has been sporadic enough that they need to capitalize on any chance they get for an easy bucket against disorganized defense. Hence the emphasis on transition as well. Denver’s bench was scoreless for three quarters in Game 6. The previous game was evidence that fast-break points are the key to unlocking Christian Braun in particular.
